Time Series Analysis

Lecture and Tutorials

First half of the summer term - until May 29, 2018

Dates:

Lecture	Tuesday (from April 17)	2 - 6 p.m.   c.t.	A 017	Geschw.-Scholl-Pl. 1 (A)	K. Wohlrabe
Tutorial	Friday (from April 27)	4 - 8 p.m.  s.t.	A 016	Geschw.-Scholl-Pl. 1 (A)	M. Kurz

Lecture and tutorial in English

 

Course information:

All relevant material and information regarding the course can be accessed through Moodle.

The password required to enroll into the Moodle course will be announced in lectures and exercises.

Skript (Lecture):

The password required for downloads is the same as mentioned above.

Script

 

Data Sets:

Data Sets 17-Apr-2018

Time Schedule:

Tue. 17-Apr-2018, 2 p.m. - 6 p.m.	Lecture	K. Wohlrabe
Tue. 24-Apr-2018, 2 p.m. - 6 p.m.	Lecture	K. Wohlrabe
Fri. 27-Apr-2018, 4 p.m. - 8 p.m.	Exercise Session: Sheet 1	M. Kurz
Tue. 01-May-2018	No Lecture (1st of May)	K. Wohlrabe
Fri. 04-May-2018, 4 p.m. - 8 p.m.	Exercise Session: Sheet 2	M. Kurz
Tue. 08-May-2018, 2 p.m. - 6 p.m.	Lecture	K. Wohlrabe
Fri. 11-May-2018, 4 p.m. - 8 p.m.	Exercise Session: Sheet 3	M. Kurz
Tue. 15-May-2018, 2 p.m. - 6 p.m.	Lecture	K. Wohlrabe
Fri. 18-May-2018, 4 p.m. - 8 p.m.	Exercise Session: Sheet 4	M. Kurz
Tue. 22-May-2018	No Lecture (Pfingstdienstag)
Fri. 25-May-2018, 4 p.m. - 8 p.m.	Exercise Session: Sheet 5	M. Kurz
Tue. 29-May-2018, 2 p.m. - 6 p.m.	Lecture
Tue. 12-Jun-2018, 4 p.m. - 6 p.m.	Exam
Tue. 25-Sep-2018, 9:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.	Exam (second date)

 

 Topics:

1. Overview
2. Fundamentals and properties of stochastic processes
3. Univariate ARIMA-Processes
4. Estimation and forecasting of ARIMA-Models
5. Univariate GARCH-Models + extensions
6. Selected aspects: Long Memory and Fractional Differencing, Threshold-Models

 

Intended audience: Advanced bachelor and master students of statistics, mathematics, informatics, economics and business administration.

Prerequisites: Solid mathematical foundations (analysis and linear algebra), basic knowledge in econometrics (econometrics 1) or statistics (linear models).

Certification: Exam in the middle of the summer term, 6 ECTS credits.

Exam (second date 6 ECTS):

Date: 25-Sep-2018

Time: 09:30 a.m.

Location: Geschw.-Scholl-Pl. 1 (M) - M 018

Duration: 120 minutes

Registration: Please register for the examination by filling out the registration form in moodle until 16-Sep-2018.

Permitted writing aids: A not programable calculator, as well as a handwritten DIN A4 crib sheet with formulas on both sides (1 sheet (2 pages) of DIN A4 paper). The crib sheet needs to be handed in together with the exam.

Please bring ID card and student card for identification!

Exam (6 ECTS):

Date: 12-Jun-2018

Time: 4 p.m.

Location: Geschw.-Scholl-Pl. 1 (M) - M 218

Duration: 120 minutes

Registration: Please register for the examination by filling out the registration form in moodle until 03-Jun-2018.

Permitted writing aids: A not programable calculator, as well as a handwritten DIN A4 crib sheet with formulas on both sides (1 sheet (2 pages) of DIN A4 paper). The crib sheet needs to be handed in together with the exam.

Please bring ID card and student card for identification!

Literature

• Shumway, R. H., Stoffer, D. S., Time Series Analysis and Its Applications (2nd edition), New York: Springer-Verlag, 2006
• Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A., Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting (2nd edition), New York: Springer-Verlag, 2002
• Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A., Time Series: Theory and Methods (2nd edition), New York:Springer-Verlag, 1987
• Hamilton, J.D., Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1994
• Tsay, R.S., Analysis of Financial Time Series (2nd edition), Wiley-Interscience, 2005
• Tsay, R.S., An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R, Wiley, 2013

R-Links

• General information on R: The R Project for Statistical Computing
• Download and setup of R: The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)
• Help files for R: R Help, see this link: R Coding Conventions
• Editor for R: Tinn-R